Introduction
Amidst global uncertainty, the aftermath of the 2024 US election promises further shifts in the world’s economic landscape. With Donald Trump’s election to the US presidency, questions arise: how will this impact economic sentiments in Hong Kong and Singapore? In response to this pivotal moment, MDRi conducted a post-election survey in November 2024, involving 500 individuals from Hong Kong and 500 individuals from Singapore, to unveil their perspectives and gauge the resulting shifts in investment confidence within these markets.
Impacts of 2024 US Elections
In this survey, respondents from both markets were asked to identify the candidate they believed would most likely enhance the global economic climate. A striking contrast emerged between the two markets: while a significant 70% of individuals in Hong Kong favoured Donald Trump, only half of the respondents in Singapore shared this view (See figures 1a and 1b).
The survey results highlight a prevailing sentiment among respondents in both Hong Kong and Singapore, with over half expecting a significant impact on the global economy following Donald Trump’s election. Notably, 64% of respondents in Hong Kong and 57% in Singapore share this view (See figure 2).
Moreover, more than 60% of respondents from both markets perceive the 2024 US election result as wielding a substantial influence on international trade relationships, with 68% in Hong Kong and 61% in Singapore (See figure 3). This underscores the interconnectedness of global economic growth with trade dynamics.
When it comes to investor confidence in global markets, around half of Singaporean respondents express a heightened sense of impact from Donald Trump’s presidency, contrasting with 44% of individuals from Hong Kong (See figure 4).
However, there is a shared concern in both markets regarding the potential deterioration of the US-China relationship following Donald Trump’s presidency, with 40% in Hong Kong and 46% in Singapore expecting it to worsen (See figure 5).
The majority of respondents in both markets share a collective awareness of the significant impact on global trade dynamics following the 2024 US election. They believe that while the election results are poised to shape the global economic landscape. Notably, it is essential to consider that the evolving US-China relationship may have enduring repercussions on the local economy in the long term.
Economic Sentiment after the 2024 US Election
Post Donald Trump’s election as US President, sentiments regarding the global economy among individuals in Hong Kong and Singapore lean towards pessimism. Approximately a quarter (27%) of respondents from both markets express optimism about the global economic outlook, with a notable 33% of respondents in Singapore harbouring pessimistic views (See figure 6a & 6b). Notably, Gen Z and Millennials from Hong Kong exhibit a higher degree of optimism towards the global economy, whereas Gen Z individuals from Singapore tend to lean towards a more pessimistic outlook.
In Hong Kong, a mere 12% of respondents exhibit optimism towards the Asia-Pacific and local Hong Kong economies. Conversely, nearly two-fifths of respondents in Hong Kong display pessimism towards the local economic landscape. In contrast, respondents in Singapore demonstrate a doubly more optimistic sentiment towards the Asia-Pacific (20%) and local economy (24%) compared to Hong Kong (See figure 7 & figure 8).
A closer examination of local market economic sentiment reveals a contrasting outlook between Millennials in Hong Kong and Singapore. Hong Kong Millennials exhibit a higher level of pessimism (45%, with only 10% expressing optimism) towards the Hong Kong economy, in contrast to 30% of Singaporean Millennials who hold an optimistic view towards the Singaporean economy (See figures 9a & 9b).
In response to Donald Trump’s presidency, both markets exhibit increased levels of pessimism regarding the Chinese economy (See figures 10a & 10b: Hong Kong 50% and Singapore 43%). This trend highlights widespread apprehensions regarding the Chinese economic landscape post-Trump. Interestingly, the older demographic (aged 45 or above) in Hong Kong displays a more optimistic outlook compared to other age groups. Conversely, the mature segment in Singapore holds a more varied perspective on economic sentiment towards China, encompassing both pessimistic and optimistic views in contrast to the broader age groups in Singapore.
Following the 2024 US election, economic sentiment in both Hong Kong and Singapore leans towards pessimism, despite a notable segment expressing optimism about the global economy. Millennials in these regions exhibit divergent economic outlooks, with Hong Kong’s youth leaning towards pessimism while Singaporean Millennials are more optimistic.
Concerns about the Chinese economy post-Trump presidency are widespread in both markets. While variations in outlook exist across age groups and regions, worries about the local and regional economic landscapes, particularly in Hong Kong, are apparent. The pessimism regarding Hong Kong’s local and regional economies may be influenced by concerns about the deteriorating US-China relations following Donald Trump’s election, as evidenced by half of the Hong Kong market expressing pessimism towards the Chinese economy.
Investment Confidence towards US Markets
Among Hong Kong investors, the bulk of their investments are currently allocated to the Hong Kong market (58%), with the US market following behind at 19%. Following the 2024 US election and a heightened sense of optimism towards the global economy than Asia or local economy, there is a notable shift in investment plans among Hong Kong investors for 2025, with a planned increase in investment allocation to the US market (rising from 19% to 24%, see figure 11).
24% of Hong Kong investors plan to invest more in the US market. And when we compare to the older age group, Gen Z and Millennials intend to invest more in the US market after the 2024 US election (See figure 12). The shift in investment from the Hong Kong market to the US market reflects a growing confidence among younger investors in diversifying their investments, coupled with a sense of pessimism regarding the local economic outlook.
Similarly, Singaporean investors are displaying a comparable investment trend. Currently, 60% of their investments are allocated to the local Singapore market, while the US market comprises 19% of their portfolio. Following the 2024 US election, there is an increasing interest among Singaporean investors to boost their US market investments, with the allocation projected to rise from 19% to 22% (See figure 13). Notably, 18% of Singaporean investors plan to increase their US investments in 2025 after the election (See figure 14).
Key factors influencing investment decisions for Hong Kong investors include market volatility (53%), interest rate changes (52%), and Trump’s economic policies (50%). In Singapore, the pivotal considerations are interest rate changes (58%) and economic policies (55%), with Hong Kong investors placing greater emphasis on international relations (45%) compared to their Singaporean counterparts (31%) (See figures 15a and 15b).
Both Hong Kong and Singapore investors are exhibiting a shift in investment sentiment towards the US market following the 2024 US election. This shift underscores a growing confidence among investors from both regions in the US market. This change in investment focus may also be influenced by a decrease in confidence in the local and Asia-Pacific economies, as highlighted in the preceding sections.
Ending note
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the US-China relationship and the potential fluctuations it might bring to the Hong Kong and Singapore markets, the MDRi survey reveals that the 2024 US election result have a more positive impact on the global economy.
The complex dynamics of global economic sentiments following the 2024 US election have unveiled a shifts in investment confidence among individuals in Hong Kong and Singapore. The increased focus on US investments signals a broader trend towards international diversification and a growing faith in the US market.
